The Numbers - Nathan Friend

Today has been a big day for the NRL, with the Wayne Bennett signing up to coach the Newcastle Knights, Jamal Idris signing with the Gold Coast Titans, and Lance Hohaia confirming he will leave the Warriors after ten years of service. Yesterday, however, it was a Warriors signing that was in the news: The Titan’s hooker, Nathan Friend for the next two NRL seasons, with an option for a third. As soon as I heard this I thought this was a pretty exciting signing. Friend is one of the most consistent players in the whole competition, and is renowned for his tough defence and solid passing games. He has always seemed like an absolutely key part of the Gold Coast team. As a result, I thought I would do a bit of breakdown of some key stats concerning his importance to the Titans.

Friend was a foundation member of the Gold Coast Titans when they entered the NRL in 2007. In 2009 he was named their player of the year. Since their inception, they have played 105 games. Friend has played an incredible 97 (93%!) of those. In one of the most physical competitions on the planet, that is ridiculous durability. Four of the eight games he has missed have been at the start of this season – he has only come back from a shoulder injury. The fact he has played such a high proportion means it is hard to use statistics to investigate just how effective he has been to the Titan’s cause. Such has been his impact however, that it is possible to do just that.

In their four and a bit year history, the Titans have only won once without Nathan Friend; that was this year, two rounds ago, when they scraped a golden point 23-22 win over the Canberra Raiders. They have lost all other six games where he has been absent. The Titan’s win percentage is 53.61% when Friend plays, compared to the 50.9% win rate over their history. Obviously these aren’t vastly different – the sheer proportion of matches that Friend has played a part means they are unlikely to be. Still, the fact they have won only once, and that was against a struggling Canberra team, is interesting enough.

Points scored and conceded when Friend does and doesn’t play is more telling; although the same issue with the proportion of games he’s played is obviously still a hindrance. The numbers are still interesting. When Friend plays for the Titans, the stats are almost even: 20.3 points per game (ppg) for, and 21.7 ppg against. For those eight games where he hasn’t been on the park, the Titans averaged just 11.6 ppg, while conceding 30.1 ppg. Those are some fairly substantial figures, and are definitely worth noting. Obviously with a larger sample size these stats would most likely even up (unless of course he really is that effective...).

Friend’s individual statistics offers a bit of insight into what appears to be the Titans inability to both win and defend without him. Most people know of him as a tough tackling player. The fact is last season he had more tackles in the NRL (1120) than anyone, compared to the league average was 264. But it wasn’t all defence: he also had more touches on the ball than any other player – 3001. Without arguably the most involved player in the competition, maybe it’s not so hard to see how the Titans have struggled without him, on the few occasions he has been missing.

So the question has to be, what numbers can we expect when Nathan Friend suits up for the Warriors in 2012? Every teams set up is different so it’s impossible to know exactly what impact he will have, and what his stats might look like. The Warriors already have one of the most consistent tacklers in the NRL in Micheal Luck. So what will happen when both are on the same side? Will anyone else in the team have to make a tackle? Hopefully his ability to stay fit will stay with him and he can play a major role in the side.

All in all, I think this is a very tidy piece of business for the Warriors. His numbers at the Gold Coast Titans are very impressive, and I look forward to seeing what he can produce over here in 2012.

Well I'm Keane!

The big rumour from the A-League over the past couple of days is the potential new manager of the Melbourne Victory could be Roy Keane. Without putting too fine a point on it, personally I think this could be fantastic for the competition.

This morning, while basking in the delight of Manchester United’s win over Chelsea in the Champions League, I read a post on the excellent Manchester United blog, redflagflyinghigh.com, which called into question what Keane could possibly achieve by managing in the A-League. I did respond in the comments section; however I thought I would flesh it out a little here.

I certainly don’t mean to have a go at the post or anything – like I said I read the blog often and it is always a good read. I guess I’m trying to add a unique perspective on things – as a fan of both United and a team in the A-League.

First of all, Keane can gain a lot out of managing down here. I think the general style that managers seem to adapt over here a will suit him. His record as Ipswich manager wasn’t great; this could be a great chance for a totally fresh break start. The A-League is improving massively, and at Melbourne he would have some real talent to work with; players like Carlos Hernandez, (Costa Rican international), Marco Rojas (everyone’s favourite turncoat) and Archie Thompson (all time leading league goal scorer) are well-known for being very tidy players.

The vast improvement in the A-League was highlighted by the way the champion Brisbane Roar played this season. They were fantastic to watch with their passing game. Captain Matt McKay became a real star for the Australian national team. Other teams struggled to compete with them all season. However, as always, the top teams go all out after them next season – searching for ways to level the playing field. You don’t get a bigger club in Australia than Melbourne Victory. Keane could be a real ace for the Victory. His experience and drive to win football matches is almost second to none.

I don’t think this is a nail in the coffin of Keane’s future prospects in top-flight Europe; at least no more so than what he achieved at Ipswich Town. Both Terry Butcher and Pierre Littbarski have managed Sydney F.C. in the past, and are currently coaching top flight football in Europe (Inverness in the SPL for Butcher and Vfl Wolfsburg in the Bundesliga for Littbarski). The point is Keane can use his time in Australia to develop further, away from the pressure that comes from constant media attention, and focus on winning football matches. A return to Europe can come after guiding one of the A-League’s most successful sides back to success.

There almost a paradox here: Keane will become the biggest star of the competition, especially if Robbie Fowler isn’t playing next season, but the media scrutiny will miniscule compared to what a comparable figure in Europe would. The A-League is still growing its identity and struggling to compete for media space with other sports like the AFL and NRL. While the attention he gets will no doubt increase the spotlight on the A-League, it will still be so much less scrutiny than what has followed him around during his career. As well as this, his famous press conferences promise to be quite the entertainment!

And if nothing else, can’t I just have Keano sitting on the sidelines, not far from me, when I go along to watch Wellington play Melbourne? The great man was one of my idols growing up. Can’t we have him over here for a couple of years?

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