Qatar, I don't get and no amount of new frontiers discussion will be able to convince me of its merits. On two fronts it is a poor decision - 1) Qatar wont be able to deliver all aspects of the tournament as fans have come to expect and 2) The other bids were better.
Here are some quick facts on Qatar:
- First or second highest GDP per Capita in the world.
- Third largest gas reserves anywhere in the world.
- Population of 1.4 million people.
- 77.6% of the population is Islam
- Average high in June and July of 46 and 44 degrees with an average low of 29 degrees.
Chief in his previous post touched on talk of new frontiers and the Middle East deserving a crack. That is absolute rubbish. The Middle East is not a new frontier for football; it is a market where football is already dominant and does not have huge capacity for growth. It is the national sport of Qatar (ahead of cricket, who knew that?!) What pedigree does the Middle East/Qatar have to say they deserve a crack?
On the other hand FIFA had the opportunity to take the worlds biggest event to two very similar sporting markets. Both the US and Australia are similar in that their domestic sporting markets are dominated by largely domestic sports, football operates on the peripherary of these codes relying largely on ex-pat/ethnic support to survive. If you accept the argument that that rationale didn't work in 1994 with the US then you still have Australia where post their 2004 qualification the sport has needed another boost as has the ailing domestic product. There is probably a reasonable/watertight argument that the US and Australia are FIFAs last frontiers and they have given away that shot for the sake of the short term dollar.
A lot was made in the last 24-hours of the report on economic returns. I didn't read it closely apart from noticing that Australia was at the bottom of the pile and I can only presume that Qatar was up around the top of the list with America. The report didn't suggest that Australia and the US wouldn't make money it was just that it would be less than Qatar. The technical report that came out in the middle of the year which talked about the football side of it all talked about Qatar being high risk compared to the others. The way I see it the commercial stuff stems from a successful operational side, it shouldn't be the other way around.
Why Qatar will be rubbish.
Its hot, like really really hot. I posted before that the average high in June/July is 46 and the average low is 29. You can air-condition your stadium all you like (and im not particularly convinced they can pull this part off) but the truth is it will still be that hot outside the stadium. Lets look at a fan who travels over to watch a team like NZ, across say a 17-day trip for the group stage games you may take in 5-6 games. Thats about 15 hours in stadiums across your 17-day trip. What are you going to do the rest of the time? You'll have to take a lot of money to sit in the pubs because Wikipedia tells me that the only places you can buy booze is in the hotels or expensive international clubs. It all turns into a vicious circle though because Wikipedia also reliably informs me that it is illegal to be drunk in public.
I guess it wouldn't be daft to assume that some of these things will change specifically for the tournament but make no mistake about it they will have to change if the event is to be any kind of success. Some of the other stats I have read suggest they only are promising to extend the number of hotel rooms to 90,000, that is not enough. In a country with 1.3 million people how do they expect to sell all the tickets? Especially considering that all the other factors I have talked about would seem to make it likely that the number of overseas visitors will be down.
The newspaper tells me that because Qatar is about the size of Auckland and they are building 6-stadia within 20km of each other fans will be able to attend three games in a day. Cool, will ticket prices allow people to do this? Will your transport infrastructure be good enough to get people between games in a day? Because sure as shit no one will be walking.
Another point Chief made was about forcing positive change in the region; again my scouting of trusty Wikipedia tells me that Qatar is Liberal compared to much of the rest of the middle-east. Thats fine but more will be needed. The Freedom of the Press index puts Qatar somewhere around 105 so obviously some work is needed in that area. The influx of woman they should expect, many of them scantily clad in 40degree heat will turn heads and test the extent of that liberalism. What I don't buy into is the absolute garbage about sporting events being drivers of social change. It didn't work in Beijing, in fact it possibly made things worse for a period of time over there. I don't think it has done magical things in South Africa yet and the Commonwealth Games in India were a disaster for the poor people of Delhi. Recent experience would suggest that governments can go the opposite way and further restrict the freedoms of populations to deliver the best tournament possible.
Added to my angst is the fact they beat Australia out, imagine a World Cup 3-hours away?! But that isn't my point, a world cup in Qatar will not be a good tournament.
FIFA has gone for the dollar over the game. Discussion around issues to do with the voting system are for someone else to talk about, there is an excellent article today in the Herald around the 2018 bidding (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/soccer-football/news/article.cfm?c_id=86&objectid=10692159) which essentially implies that bid executives were lied to by executive committee members. How can those members claim to be doing what is best for the game when they are lying to stakeholders of the game? Mind-boggling. I read someone say the other day that losing bidders knew what they were getting into when they bid for the tournament. An argument, which that is, that suggests because everyone breaks the rules and has been for some time so we should get over it is the ultimate cop out in anything. Hopefully the backlash which has been seen in some places will be a positive driver for change in the FIFA corridors because god knows they need it.
Oh.... and FIFA is corrupt as f*ck too
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