So I'm sitting here getting frustrated with the Black Caps, and our awful bowling unit- as Afridi has just hit 65 off his last 24 balls due to a) him being quite good, and b) our poor death bowling. I figure I'll blog about how this isn't so relevant at the Cup.
I'll start with the bowling positives (of which there are few).
Southee- He can typically put the ball where it is required- something most of the others in the squad cannot do. It was highlighted a year or so ago in a Super over against Oz in T20- where he went for 6 runs. He isn't quite consistent enough yet- it's not uncommon to see him bowl four pearlers in an over, with a couple of loose ones which will go for four, but generally a lot more accurate than the rest of the squad.
Vettori- No comment needed really- as a containing bowler he'd be one of the best in the world. Obviously a shoe-in as captain, and a quality batsman, getting us out of trouble so often.
Outside of these two though, we are lacking in any real quality. Mills- one time best ODI bowler in the world, now past it and awful. Oram- useful option when he's bowling well, probably not a match-winner any more. Bennett- a bit raw, but possible match-winner if all is going well. Woodcock- pleased to see him in the squad, but no experience on the big stage. Franklin- being used to open our bowling currently, but surely no more than a bit-part bowler at the Cup.
We also have a large number of players who can play a bit-part in our bowling plans at the Cup. Obviously Piggy can roll the arm down succesfully, and will play a part in the WC. With Ryder's injuries he's bowling less, but I really rate him as an option if tossed the ball. Williamson- not bad domestically, unproven internationally. N-Mac- not a great wicket-taker, but could be useful in India.
Hardly a bowling lineup that'll strike fear into opposition at the Cup- ipso facto, we're not going to win with our bowling prowess.
Our depth lies in the strength of our batsmen, and their ability to accumulate quickly when required. Taylor, Ryder and McCullum are among the best in the world, and all play their best when they are hitting the ball hard. Guptill for mine is also heading this way, and could be a useful support act here. Williamson, not so much an attacking option, but if these other four are on their game, he'll be a useful foil down the other end. I don't mind Jamie How (would rather McGlashan)- but don't anticipate he'll play a huge part at the Cup- and not nearly as powerful as those he'll be competing with at the top of the order.
Piggy and Vettori are both more than useful batsmen, and (the new) Franklin and Oram on their day can be match-winners. As much as I don't particularly want Mills in the starting XI, he can hit a big ball if required, as can Southee (over cow and cow only).
So cutting to the chase (something I'm awful at). I think we almost need to head into games in the Super stage of the Cup expecting to chase in excess of 300, but to have the faith that we will be able to. We need to stack the team with players who can bat, somewhat cutting our losses with our bowlers- meaning that you won't see a lineup of Woodcock/Mills/Southee/Bennett at 8/9/10/11 as you do in today's match. Realistically we'll have potential match-winners batting down to 10, and all we need is three or four of these batsmen to fire and we'll be able to chase down 300.
I'd lineup as follows.
Guppy
Ryder
Williamson
Taylor
Styris
B McCullum
Franklin/N McCullum
Oram
Vettori
Southee
Bennett
Potentially open with B-Mac- but sounds like that's not an option with Wright. Also easy to drop Williamson down the order if we need to capitalise on an early power play.
Do I think we'll win the World Cup? No- I'm not deluded. But if we have any chance to win, I think that batting deep and using a large number of bit-part bowlers whose strength lies in their aggressive batting, will be the way that we could.
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