Well ever since Manchester United lost to Liverpool on Monday morning (NZ time) I have been trying to convince myself that United will still win the Premier League. I think I’ve managed it, so I thought I would write it all out in a blog.
United have hardly been at their best all season, even though they went unbeaten until just a month ago. There’s a thought that they’re top of the league almost by default, especially with the spectacular fall from grace that some of the top teams have managed, and others not yet ready to challenge. Arsenal, the team only three points back in the league with a game in hand, are the only top team that appear to have approved to the extent they could realistically lift the title.
The TAB has United at $1.67, and Arsenal at $2.75 to win the Premier League. On paper, they should be almost even. However, after the horrible feeling after the matches at both Stamford Bridge and Anfield had subsided in my stomach, I came up with three reasons that have re-convinced me that that United will still be champions in a couple of months.
Reason 1: Wayne Rooney.
The man who has been in fairly horrendous form for almost an entire year is the man who can be the difference in the title run in. With the year he has had, what with a woeful World Cup, the shenanigans of last October (when he said he wanted to leave United before signing a new five year contract), as well as numerous injury worries and an personal life that has filled the tabloids, Rooney has suddenly perked up. He has five goals in his last six games, including that wonder-goal winner in the Manchester derby. He also scored in the loss against Chelsea, his first goal from outside the penalty area since February 2008. If he is on one of his famous goal scoring streak, Wayne Rooney could well be the reason Manchester United will win the Premier League in 2011.
Reason 2: United’s main opposition is Arsenal.
If there was any team that could manage to choke when in a position like this, it would be Arsenal. They’ve already managed to bomb one trophy this season – the Carling Cup final where an awful mix up led to them conceding a 89th minute winner to Birmingham (currently all the way down in 17th in the league). They head to Barcelona with a 2-1 aggregate lead, but it will be tough for them to hold that. They also have to go to Old Trafford for the next round of the FA Cup. They are going to have to play extremely well in either fixture to progress in those two competitions, and try and end what has become a six year trophy-drought. Arsenal also appears over reliant on Cesc Fabregas and Robin van Persie, who always seem to be battling injuries. To them, the equation should appear simple – they win their remaining eleven league games and they will be champions – but will that actually happen?
Reason 3: The remaining fixture list
At face value, the remaining fixture lists should favour Arsenal. They have three games against the top six remaining, Liverpool at home and Tottenham away before the big one on May 1 against Manchester United at the Emirates. Other than that, Stoke and Bolton would be two away fixtures that might cause them some grief. They have struggled historically against those two teams – especially the physicality of Stoke. United have to play Chelsea at home before the trip to Arsenal. Trips to Newcastle and West Ham could provide banana skins. On paper it certainly seems the harder run-in – especially if the United vs. Arsenal match becomes a virtual title decider; home advantage could be huge. So, trying to pick what might unfold: any dropped points for the Gunners and suddenly the match at the Emirates will not take on nearly as much importance. United won’t drop points at home – but on the road might be a different story. But Arsenal has shown frailties at home all season, and the United vs. Arsenal game could essentially be a title decider. Even then, United have won the last two visits to the Emirates (3-1 in the league last year, and 3-1 in the Champions League the year before). They do seem to thrive at the Emirates; as a result that game could go any which way. Arsenal would be under immense pressure to perform, and win. If it’s anything like a Cup final, they may well end up gifting the title to Manchester United.
Conclusion: The Premier League has just about evolved into a two-horse race – on one side there is Manchester United, who have won almost everything in the past three years, with a golden chance to overtake Liverpool as the most successful team in English history; and on the other side is Arsenal, six years without a trophy, looking shaky when a critical fixture comes along, and seemingly dependant on injury-prone players.
My verdict: Manchester United win title number 19.
Disclaimer: To be honest, my analysis was never going to point to an Arsenal win. I am a tad biased.
Alot depends on having the Rio/Vidic pairing together at the back. With them together United are hard to beat..... without... well we get either Evans (who's gone MIA) or Brown (who's just crap now)..... Smalling will be very good though.
ReplyDeleteI think we can survive a less-than-stellar Rooney for one reason - Chicarito. Javier has been a great buy for SAF and gives us quality depth (translation: NOT Owen) up front.