The Numbers - Nathan Friend

Today has been a big day for the NRL, with the Wayne Bennett signing up to coach the Newcastle Knights, Jamal Idris signing with the Gold Coast Titans, and Lance Hohaia confirming he will leave the Warriors after ten years of service. Yesterday, however, it was a Warriors signing that was in the news: The Titan’s hooker, Nathan Friend for the next two NRL seasons, with an option for a third. As soon as I heard this I thought this was a pretty exciting signing. Friend is one of the most consistent players in the whole competition, and is renowned for his tough defence and solid passing games. He has always seemed like an absolutely key part of the Gold Coast team. As a result, I thought I would do a bit of breakdown of some key stats concerning his importance to the Titans.

Friend was a foundation member of the Gold Coast Titans when they entered the NRL in 2007. In 2009 he was named their player of the year. Since their inception, they have played 105 games. Friend has played an incredible 97 (93%!) of those. In one of the most physical competitions on the planet, that is ridiculous durability. Four of the eight games he has missed have been at the start of this season – he has only come back from a shoulder injury. The fact he has played such a high proportion means it is hard to use statistics to investigate just how effective he has been to the Titan’s cause. Such has been his impact however, that it is possible to do just that.

In their four and a bit year history, the Titans have only won once without Nathan Friend; that was this year, two rounds ago, when they scraped a golden point 23-22 win over the Canberra Raiders. They have lost all other six games where he has been absent. The Titan’s win percentage is 53.61% when Friend plays, compared to the 50.9% win rate over their history. Obviously these aren’t vastly different – the sheer proportion of matches that Friend has played a part means they are unlikely to be. Still, the fact they have won only once, and that was against a struggling Canberra team, is interesting enough.

Points scored and conceded when Friend does and doesn’t play is more telling; although the same issue with the proportion of games he’s played is obviously still a hindrance. The numbers are still interesting. When Friend plays for the Titans, the stats are almost even: 20.3 points per game (ppg) for, and 21.7 ppg against. For those eight games where he hasn’t been on the park, the Titans averaged just 11.6 ppg, while conceding 30.1 ppg. Those are some fairly substantial figures, and are definitely worth noting. Obviously with a larger sample size these stats would most likely even up (unless of course he really is that effective...).

Friend’s individual statistics offers a bit of insight into what appears to be the Titans inability to both win and defend without him. Most people know of him as a tough tackling player. The fact is last season he had more tackles in the NRL (1120) than anyone, compared to the league average was 264. But it wasn’t all defence: he also had more touches on the ball than any other player – 3001. Without arguably the most involved player in the competition, maybe it’s not so hard to see how the Titans have struggled without him, on the few occasions he has been missing.

So the question has to be, what numbers can we expect when Nathan Friend suits up for the Warriors in 2012? Every teams set up is different so it’s impossible to know exactly what impact he will have, and what his stats might look like. The Warriors already have one of the most consistent tacklers in the NRL in Micheal Luck. So what will happen when both are on the same side? Will anyone else in the team have to make a tackle? Hopefully his ability to stay fit will stay with him and he can play a major role in the side.

All in all, I think this is a very tidy piece of business for the Warriors. His numbers at the Gold Coast Titans are very impressive, and I look forward to seeing what he can produce over here in 2012.