The Chase for the Title: My (Biased) View

Well ever since Manchester United lost to Liverpool on Monday morning (NZ time) I have been trying to convince myself that United will still win the Premier League. I think I’ve managed it, so I thought I would write it all out in a blog.

United have hardly been at their best all season, even though they went unbeaten until just a month ago. There’s a thought that they’re top of the league almost by default, especially with the spectacular fall from grace that some of the top teams have managed, and others not yet ready to challenge. Arsenal, the team only three points back in the league with a game in hand, are the only top team that appear to have approved to the extent they could realistically lift the title.

The TAB has United at $1.67, and Arsenal at $2.75 to win the Premier League. On paper, they should be almost even. However, after the horrible feeling after the matches at both Stamford Bridge and Anfield had subsided in my stomach, I came up with three reasons that have re-convinced me that that United will still be champions in a couple of months.

Reason 1: Wayne Rooney.
The man who has been in fairly horrendous form for almost an entire year is the man who can be the difference in the title run in. With the year he has had, what with a woeful World Cup, the shenanigans of last October (when he said he wanted to leave United before signing a new five year contract), as well as numerous injury worries and an personal life that has filled the tabloids, Rooney has suddenly perked up. He has five goals in his last six games, including that wonder-goal winner in the Manchester derby. He also scored in the loss against Chelsea, his first goal from outside the penalty area since February 2008. If he is on one of his famous goal scoring streak, Wayne Rooney could well be the reason Manchester United will win the Premier League in 2011.

Reason 2: United’s main opposition is Arsenal.
If there was any team that could manage to choke when in a position like this, it would be Arsenal. They’ve already managed to bomb one trophy this season – the Carling Cup final where an awful mix up led to them conceding a 89th minute winner to Birmingham (currently all the way down in 17th in the league). They head to Barcelona with a 2-1 aggregate lead, but it will be tough for them to hold that. They also have to go to Old Trafford for the next round of the FA Cup. They are going to have to play extremely well in either fixture to progress in those two competitions, and try and end what has become a six year trophy-drought. Arsenal also appears over reliant on Cesc Fabregas and Robin van Persie, who always seem to be battling injuries. To them, the equation should appear simple – they win their remaining eleven league games and they will be champions – but will that actually happen?

Reason 3: The remaining fixture list
At face value, the remaining fixture lists should favour Arsenal. They have three games against the top six remaining, Liverpool at home and Tottenham away before the big one on May 1 against Manchester United at the Emirates. Other than that, Stoke and Bolton would be two away fixtures that might cause them some grief. They have struggled historically against those two teams – especially the physicality of Stoke. United have to play Chelsea at home before the trip to Arsenal. Trips to Newcastle and West Ham could provide banana skins. On paper it certainly seems the harder run-in – especially if the United vs. Arsenal match becomes a virtual title decider; home advantage could be huge. So, trying to pick what might unfold: any dropped points for the Gunners and suddenly the match at the Emirates will not take on nearly as much importance. United won’t drop points at home – but on the road might be a different story. But Arsenal has shown frailties at home all season, and the United vs. Arsenal game could essentially be a title decider. Even then, United have won the last two visits to the Emirates (3-1 in the league last year, and 3-1 in the Champions League the year before). They do seem to thrive at the Emirates; as a result that game could go any which way. Arsenal would be under immense pressure to perform, and win. If it’s anything like a Cup final, they may well end up gifting the title to Manchester United.

Conclusion: The Premier League has just about evolved into a two-horse race – on one side there is Manchester United, who have won almost everything in the past three years, with a golden chance to overtake Liverpool as the most successful team in English history; and on the other side is Arsenal, six years without a trophy, looking shaky when a critical fixture comes along, and seemingly dependant on injury-prone players.

My verdict: Manchester United win title number 19.

Disclaimer: To be honest, my analysis was never going to point to an Arsenal win. I am a tad biased.

An All White Lining?

Relegation is probably the worst thing that can happen to any European football team. The three teams relegated from the English Premiership each year have to undergo massive change to adapt to the shock. No longer are the trips to the glamour stadiums like Old Trafford or Stamford Bridge, the millions watching on television around the world, and all the associated riches. Star players must be off-loaded to cut costs, and promotion sought after immediately to avoid potential financial peril.

I believe it impacts on individual players differently; as mentioned, star players can find new clubs in the Premiership; older players sink down a division, never to be heard of again, and younger players are suddenly faced with the fact they are going to be playing Millwall and Barnsley instead of Arsenal or Manchester United.

So maybe it is a strange thing when I think relegation could be a positive thing for Winston Reid, New Zealand’s young defender at West Ham United. West Ham are currently in the bottom three of the Premier League, with thirteen games left to play. To suggest they are going down is premature; there is however a reasonable chance it will happen.

Reid arrived to reasonable fanfare after the World Cup, where he was a star performer for the All Whites playing alongside Ryan Nelsen. After his transfer, he started West Ham’s first game of the season, a 3-0 loss to Aston Villa, and then came on in as a substitute in the following match. Since then however, he has only appeared twice in the Premier League (including an hour this morning at Blackpool), while his other appearances have come in West Ham’s cup ties. Time is on his side; he is young, but it is only natural for him to want to play games. If he approaches it right, a season in the Championship could really benefit him.

West Ham spent reasonable money on him (somewhere around GBP4 million) and he has a three year contract. It’s unlikely they’ll let him leave for nothing. However no other Premier League teams are likely to be interested in him, having barely played consistently at that level. So if the Hammers are relegated chances are he will remain at the club. Many of his fellow defenders, on the other hand, will not be there. Here is the situation with the top defenders at the club:
• Danny Gabbidon was been linked to both Rangers and Celtic in January. He was the man Reid replaced this morning when he went off injured.
• Wayne Bridge is only on loan for the rest of the season, and will definitely leave if they get relegated.
• Matthew Upson’s contract expires at the end of the season, and will have a number of Premier League clubs after him as he will be a free transfer.
• James Tomkins looks slightly more set to stay, though there have been some rumours this season of interest from both Tottenham and Chelsea.
• Manuel Da Costa has recently been charged with assault following an incident in a London nightclub.

It wouldn’t take too many of these guys to leave (or be sent to jail...) before all of a sudden Reid is one of only a few defenders at the club. And in a Championship environment, the West Ham management will be more inclined to give him opportunities, and develop a rapport at the back. Of course, for it to fully benefit him, West Ham then gets promoted, with Reid a mainstay. This way, Reid develops immensely as a footballer, and in the end gets the Holy Grail – a starting spot in an English Premier League team.